From the July WASDE Report
CORN
CY23 (US)
Corn was the big surprise today with Grain stocks lower in CY23, basically ignoring the larger than expected June 1 Stocks for CY23 and increasing use in Feed & Residual (up 75 million bu), and exports (up 75 million bushels), offset by only 5 mil bu of imports to lower the CY23 Carryout to 1.877 bil bu from 2.022 in June and directionally opposite from Trade’s estimate that ending stocks would expand by 300 thousand bushels.
CY24 (US)
In CY24, the Planted acres of 91.5 million acres were adopted and the 181 trendline yield remained unchanged. As expected corn rose to 15.1 bil bu, though trade’s average guess was only 15.016 bil bu. Offsetting that increase were lower carryin (from CY23), limiting Supply’s increase to only 95 million bu. Those bushels were more than offset by 75 million bu increase in Feed & Residual use, rising to 5.825 bil bu, and exports increasing 25 mil bu, to net drop the CY24 Carryout by 5 million bu to 2.097 bil bu from 2.102. The average Farm Gate price dropped 10 cents for U.S. Farmers.
CY23 (World)
Globally, The CY23 Corn carryout shrank from 312.39 MMT to 309.13 MMT. Most of that was the US, but Argentina’s production dropped 1 MMT, to 52 MMT. Brazil was unchanged at 122 MMT.
CY24 (World)
For CY24, the carryout rose from 310.77 to 311.64 MMT. Russian production is marked 400 thousand metric tons lower, with exports reduced by the same.
BEANS
CY23 (US)
Beans saw imports for CY23 tick lower by 5 mil bu, dropping the carryout by the same to 345 mil bu, and 11 lower than trade’s expectation of 356 mil bu.
CY24 (US)
CY24 Bean production fell 15 million bushels on lower planted acres as expected, with yield and acres as expected. No changes to use saw CY24 Carryout fall 20 million bu to 435 mil bu, trade expected 444.
CY23 (World)
Globally, the CY23 Bean carryout rose to 111.25 MMT from 111.07, but with additional purchases by China of 3 MMT, World less China fell to 71.87 MMT from 74.67. Production in Argentina was downgraded 500 thousand metric tons to 49.5 MMT from 50 MMT. Brazil was unchanged at 153 MMT.
CY24 (World)
For CY24 the global carryout was almost unchanged dropping 140 TMT from 127.9 to 127.76 MMT. China’s additional purchases in CY23 also ripple into the CY24 world less China stat.
WHEAT
CY23 (US)
For Wheat, in CY23 imports were down 2 mil bu, but use was also lower with 3 mil bu less used for seed, and 13 mil bu less to exports. This ended up increasing the carryout from 688 mil bu to 702 mil bu. Last Year’s average farm gate price fell 4 cents to 6.96 /bu.
CY24 (US)
This year, planted acres fell 300 thousand, but area harvested increased 800 thousand. Additionally yield rose from the trendline 49.4 bu/ac to 51.8 bu/ac, lifting production from 1.875 to 2.008 bil bu. Last year’s additional carryin of 14 mil bu is mostly offset with 15 mil bu fewer imports. For use, Feed and Residual ticked to mil bu higher, while exports rose 25 mil bu, but the carryout rose 98 million bu, from 758 in June to 856 mil bu in July.
CY23 (World)
Globally, the CY23 Carryout increased from 259.56 MMT to 260.99 MMT Russia’s exports were upgraded 1.5 MMT from 54 MMT to 55.5 MMT. China added 1 MMT of wheat imports.
CY24 (World)
For CY24, Ending stocks rose 4.97 MMT from 252.27 to 257.24 MMT. Argentina’s crop was upgraded .5 MMT to 18 MMT. Canada gained 1 MMT rising to 35 MMT of production.The EU fell .5 MMT. Chinese imports were increased 1 MMT to 12 MMT, while India remains close to 0 with less than ⅓ of a MMT.
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FAQs
Once analysts present their credentials to a guard, they enter the secured area to finalize the WASDE report. During lockup, NASS shares with WOAB analysts production data which they use to finalize projections. Lockup is lifted when the report is released at 12:00 noon Eastern time.
How often is the WASDE report released? ›
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is prepared and released by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). The report is released monthly, and provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton.
What is the crop outlook for USDA? ›
Corn production is down 1% from last year, forecast at 15.1 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to increase their production 10% from 2023, forecast at a record high 4.59 billion bushels. Average corn yield is forecast at record high 183.1 bushels per acre, up 5.8 bushels from last year.
What is the USDA corn forecast? ›
Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area from the June Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre.
What time of year are grain prices the highest? ›
Seasonality is a huge aspect of grain marketing and should inform all grain marketing decisions. As basic economics suggests, prices decline when supply is high, and in the United States, supply peaks at harvest. Seasonal averages indicate that the highest soybean prices typically occur in May, June, and July.
What is the outlook for corn harvest? ›
The U.S. corn outlook for 2024/25 is for lower production, greater domestic use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.040 billion bushels, down about 2 percent from the prior year's record.
Which state is number one in the nation for Agriculture? ›
California ranks first in the U.S. for agricultural cash receipts followed by Iowa, Texas, Nebraska and Illinois. How much does agriculture contribute to the economy?
Has the number of farms in the US increased? ›
The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline
Since 1982, the number of U.S. farms has continued to decline, but much more slowly.
What is the outlook for grain farming? ›
The 2024/25 U.S. feed grain supply forecast is 449.9 million metric tons this month, up 2.1 million metric tons from the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast. An increase in corn planted and harvested acreage is the main driver of the increase in supply.
Will corn prices go up in 2024? ›
Given usual price patterns, one expects cash prices to increase over the marketing season, and an average cash price of $4.00 per bushel for 2024 production seems reasonable. A $4.00 price is well below recent prices. USDA reports the national market year average (MYA) price at $6.00 for 2021 and $6.54 for 2022.
The average US corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023 was 3.4 bushels per acre (1.9%) shy of the 180.7 bushel per acre US trend yield. Figure 3 illustrates county-level yields relative to trend in 2023.
How high will corn prices go? ›
2024 and 2025 Projected Corn and Soybean Prices. In its June World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected the 2024 corn price at $4.40 per bushel. This 2024 price is the market year average price for the U.S. from September 2024 to August 2025.
How much is corn selling for? ›
US Corn Farm Price Received is at a current level of 4.48, down from 4.51 last month and down from 6.49 one year ago. This is a change of -0.67% from last month and -30.97% from one year ago. The US Corn Farm Price measures the price of 1 bushel of corn in US Dollars.
What is the current corn yield? ›
This “final” estimate may be revised at the end of the 2023/24 marketing year, but these revisions are usually quite small. The final U.S. average yield for corn for 2023 of 177.3 bushels was a new record, but it was only 3.4 bushels above the average for the previous seven years.
Why are corn prices so low? ›
And we just had a little rally in this market, that incentivized movement, and so a lot of grain came to town." He says farmer selling combined with rain coming through parts of the Corn Belt, were enough to push prices even lower. "That put pressure on key technical numbers in the market, namely $4," North adds.
What time is the USDA export sales report? ›
The weekly reporting period runs Friday through Thursday and exporters must report no later than 11:59 p.m. ET the following Monday. FAS publishes a weekly summary of export sales activity every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, unless a change is announced.
What is the forecast for the grain market? ›
The 2024/25 U.S. feed grain supply forecast is 449.9 million metric tons this month, up 2.1 million metric tons from the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast. An increase in corn planted and harvested acreage is the main driver of the increase in supply.
What is the outlook for global grains? ›
Boosted by anticipated better yields, world 2024/25 total grains production is forecast to increase by 1%, to a new all-time peak of 2,321m t. Despite comparatively tight opening stocks, the potentially bumper crop could see overall availabilities edge higher.
How often does the USDA survey farmers? ›
Every five years NASS also conducts the Census of Agriculture, providing the only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every county in the nation.
